event contracts

Policy Regula

2026-10-03 01:25:57

U.S. federal court preliminarily finds Kalshi sports event contracts may qualify as swaps

A federal judge in the Northern District of Illinois has partially granted a motion for a preliminary injunction filed by Coinbase, Kalshi, the U.S. government, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, temporarily blocking Illinois from imposing sports betting licensing requirements and related criminal penalties on the Kalshi sports event contracts at issue. According to crypto lawyer Ariel Givner, Judge Martha Pacold said the contracts are likely to fall under the definition of swaps in the Commodity Exchange Act. On that basis, the court indicated that the relevant Illinois state-law provisions are likely preempted by federal law. The ruling is preliminary and applies to the contracts involved in the case.

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CFTC

2026-09-30 18:39:21

CFTC sends two rules to the White House in bid to tighten control over prediction markets

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sent two rule proposals to the White House that would reshape how federal law treats prediction-market event contracts. Submitted to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs on Sept. 28, the filings focus on the legal definition of a "swap," a classification that sits at the center of an escalating fight over who regulates yes-or-no contracts traded on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. One proposal would explicitly include event contracts within the swap definition and move to public comment, while the other, issued as an interim final rule, would exclude "casino-style gambling products" and could take effect once approved. The texts have not yet been released publicly, and the CFTC said neither rule is economically significant. The move comes as multiple states pursue prediction-market operators over alleged illegal gambling, while the CFTC argues that if the contracts are swaps, oversight belongs to the federal agency rather than state gambling regulators. The dispute has already produced conflicting appeals-court rulings and is now drawing the attention of the U.S. Supreme Court.

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CFTC

2026-09-30 16:17:37

CFTC moves to classify prediction market event contracts as swaps in fight over state gambling claims

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sent two rulemakings to the White House Office of Management and Budget that would pull prediction market event contracts into the legal definition of swaps while carving out casino-style gambling products from that same category. The move could weaken the legal basis states have used against platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket by shifting the products more firmly into the federal derivatives framework overseen by the CFTC. The filings came as federal appellate courts have split on whether sports-related event contracts fall under CFTC authority or state gambling law. The Sixth Circuit recently ruled against the agency, and the Eighth Circuit reached a similar conclusion, while the Third Circuit had previously backed the CFTC’s position. That conflict raises the odds that the dispute could eventually reach the U.S. Supreme Court. The article also says the CFTC’s current push is being driven by Chairman Mike Selig, described as the agency’s only sitting commissioner, and notes that OMB disclosures show a separate crypto-related prerule has also been submitted, though no details have been released.

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CFTC

2026-09-30 15:28:29

CFTC sends two event-contract rules to White House review, seeking to classify them as swaps

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sent two rules tied to prediction-market event contracts to the White House Office of Management and Budget for review. One proposal would formally bring event contracts under the regulatory definition of swaps, while another would state that such products are not tied to gambling. The move comes as the agency fights states over whether sports-related contracts on platforms such as Kalshi should be treated as illegal gambling under state law. It also lands against a split federal court backdrop: recent rulings from the Sixth and Eighth Circuits said Kalshi’s sports contracts are not swaps, while an earlier Third Circuit decision backed CFTC jurisdiction over prediction markets. OMB review is typically one of the last steps before a rule is released for public comment, though an interim final rule could take effect immediately while still allowing revisions. White House disclosures dated Sept. 28 did not include the text of either rule, and the CFTC labeled both as not economically significant. The filings also showed that the agency recently submitted a separate crypto-focused prerule to the White House, without describing its scope.

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CFTC

2026-09-30 15:25:39

CFTC sends two rules to White House review, drawing a line around event contracts and gambling products

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has submitted two rules to the White House Office of Management and Budget for review, according to ChainCatcher. One proposal would bring event contracts into the regulatory definition of swaps. The other, described as an interim final rule, would exclude "casino-style gambling products" from the scope of swaps. OMB received both items this week, and the documents are dated Sept. 28. The move comes as the CFTC and several states remain locked in a fight over how prediction markets should be treated. Event contracts are typically binary yes-or-no bets tied to measurable outcomes such as sports events and elections. Last week, the Sixth Circuit ruled that Kalshi's sports contracts are not swaps and should be governed by state gambling law, with the Eighth Circuit reaching a similar conclusion. The Third Circuit had earlier found that the CFTC has jurisdiction over prediction markets, leaving a split at the federal level. CFTC Chair Mike Selig has said the agency holds exclusive authority over prediction markets. If event contracts are deemed swaps and not gambling products, that could weaken states' positions in several lawsuits against platforms including Kalshi. OMB disclosures also show the CFTC recently sent the White House a preregulatory item focused on crypto oversight.

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Goldman Sachs

2026-09-29 05:03:07

Goldman Sachs lifts Robinhood target to $145 after September crypto volumes beat expectations

Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month price target on Robinhood Markets (HOOD) to $145 from $144 and kept its Buy rating after the company’s preliminary September activity came in ahead of expectations. In a report dated Sept. 28, 2026, analyst James Yaro said crypto trading volume rose 21% month over month to $21.9 billion, 87% above market consensus and 17% above Goldman’s prior estimate. Event contract volume increased 37% from the previous month, topping consensus by 36% and Goldman’s own forecast by 6%. The bank said those two categories were the biggest positive surprises in the monthly data. Stock and options volumes slipped 2% and 1% from August, respectively, but still exceeded consensus by 17% and 43%. Goldman also revised its revenue outlook higher, citing not only stronger trading activity but also a steeper interest-rate curve, which it said should support Robinhood’s net interest income through the end of 2027. Goldman lifted its 2026-2028 net revenue forecasts by 1%, 4%, and 4%, while adjusted EPS estimates changed by -1%, +4%, and +3%. The modest increase in the target price reflects higher earnings expectations offset in part by a lower valuation multiple.

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Kalshi

2026-09-26 23:34:16

Kalshi wins appeals court ruling to keep event contracts running in two states

Prediction market platform Kalshi has secured a key ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, allowing it to continue offering event contracts in Ohio and Tennessee, according to Cointelegraph. The dispute centered on whether those contracts could remain available as Kalshi faced challenges from relevant state regulators. The court’s decision lets the company keep operating the products in both states while the broader regulatory fight over event contracts continues to draw attention. The report did not add further details beyond the court’s ruling and the states involved, but the decision marks an important legal win for Kalshi in its dispute with state authorities over the availability of these contracts.

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Robinhood

2026-09-22 06:58:05

Robinhood CEO says crypto contracts could overtake sports in prediction markets

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said crypto-linked contracts already account for a sizable share of the company’s prediction market business and could become the dominant category over the next few years as sports contracts fall into the minority. The comments point to a broader category mix inside Robinhood’s event contracts business, which has posted sharp growth recently. According to company figures, event contract revenue reached $156 million in the second quarter of 2026, up more than 10x from a year earlier, while trading volume hit 13.6 billion contracts. In August, event contract volume came in at 4.7 billion contracts, roughly 15x higher year over year. Tenev said sports contracts had previously served mainly to attract users and build liquidity, but the prediction market business is now expanding into more categories, including crypto. The remarks were cited by Decrypt and relayed by Odaily.

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